Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Astronomy, no. 51, p. 23-24 (2014)

Operational geomagnetic forecast service

O. Semeniv, Ph.D.,
A. Polonska, engineer,
A. Parnowski, Ph.D., Sr. Res. Fell.
State Space Agency of Ukraine

The operational forecasting service for real-time geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp was described. The warning time for the Earth to the intersection of the Dst index is 1-4 hours, for the Kp index – 3 hours. The skillscore parameter, which is defined as a decrease of the relative mean square error with respect to the trivial model, was approximately 40% for Dst and 15% for Kp. The service works on-line freely available through STAFF http://www.staff.oma.be/ browser.

Geomagnetic forecasting

Parnowski, A. 2009, Astrophysics & Space Science.,323, 2, 169
Parnowski, A.2011, Journal of Physical Studies.,15, 2, 2002
Press, W.H., Teukolsky, S.A., Vetterling, W.T., Flannery, B.P. 1992, CambridgeUniv. Press, Cambridge
Seber, G.A.F. 1977, Wiley
Hudson, D.J. 1964, Statistics. Lectures on Elementary Statistics and Probability.,CERN, Geneva
Parnowski, A., Polonska, A. 2012, Journal of PhysicalStudies.,16, 1/2,1002
Parnowski, A., Polonska,2011, A. Proc. 4th International Workshop on Inductive Modelling IWIM 2011, ,Kyiv, Ukraine, 4-11 July, 71
Parnowski A., Polonska, A., Semeniv, O. 2012,[arXiv: 1203.1951]
Parnowski A., Semeniv O., Polonska A., Malisse V., Verbeeck C. 2014, Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

Full text PDF