Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Astronomy, no. 51, p. 36-39 (2014)
Preliminary prediction of the 25-thTH solar cycle parameters
M. Pishkalo, Ph.D. in Phys. and Math. Sciences
Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
Abstract
Solar activity varies with a period of about 11 years. The solar activity variations cause changes in the interplanetary and near-Earth space. The whole space weather is mainly controlled by the solar activity. Changes in space weather affect the operation of space-borne and ground-based technological systems such as manned space flights, aero-navigation and space navigation, radars, high-frequency radio communication, GPS navigation, ground power lines. The solar activity variations influence living organisms and the climate on Earth. That is why it is important to know the level of solar activity in a solar cycle in advance. Current solar activity is near the maximum of solar cycle 24. Maximal monthly sunspot number was 102.8 in February 2014 and smoothed one was 75.4 in November 2013 (preliminary). Taking it into account and using correlation relations and regression equations from (Pishkalo, 2014: Solar Phys., vol. 289, 1815) we can estimate duration of solar cycle 24 and then predict parameters of solar cycle 25. Precursors in our calculations are the estimated duration of solar cycle 24 and sunspot number at the end of the cycle. We found that minimum and maximum of solar cycle 25 in monthly sunspot numbers will amount to 5 in April–June of 2020 and 105–110 in October–December of 2024, respectively. Solar cycle 25 will be stronger than the current cycle 24. No very deep drop in solar activity similar to Dalton or Maunder minimums was predicted.
Keywords
Solar activity, solar cycle
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